N-Deal: Manmohan’s Stand
For last couple of days our great (and aged) Prime Minister has been talking about the importance of Nuclear Energy Resources in a growing Economy like India. He is quite right that going ahead (in long term, coal and gas can not meet country’s energy demand (which should mean cost and ease of availability). N-energy can possibly meet the Country’s Energy Demand (which is fast growing with the growing economy).
In order to make the N-Energy Resources a possibility, our visionary PM is (hell) bent on finalizing Indo-American-Civil-Nuclear Deal as soon as possible. Though N-energy could be a great thing for India, but is the path (which Indian Govt is following) really in Country’s Best Interests?
What this Nuclear Pact could mean for India?
This pact could mean that any N-Energy plant in India will be set up under USA monitoring (under name of IAEA) . Which will also imply that only USA companies (with some Indian Partnership) will be able to generate and sell N-Energy in India. This will also mean that all the supply of raw nuclear material will come from USA. Which will greatly mean that all Indian Economy will under direct control of USA (Supply of Energy Resources has most powerful direct control on an economy - for example, presently most economies are controlled by Coal, and Crude Oil
* Some people might argue that IAEA is an international organization (and not a USA body). I will remind them that the USA attack on Iraq was done under name of UN (which is an international body). Many word powers were against military action on Iraq. But USA managed to put a USA stamp on their action with their powerful lobbying. Similar lobbying will be possible in IAEA.
Where does India Stand as a Nuclear Power?
Is India already not a Nuclear Power? I was under impression that with “Pokhran Nuclear Tests” we had proven our nuclear mental to the world (at least this is what the erstwhile Indian Government had claimed). We also have an atomic energy plant (In Mumbai). So why do we need to fall prey to USA business tactics? As per some reports, India also has also (secretly) pursued Uranium Enrichment (Enriched Uranium will be needed as raw material for N-power plants) for last few decades.
Possible Limitations on India’s way to Self-dependence
A few limitations on India’s way of becoming an independent Nuclear power could be:
* Unavailability of enough Nuclear Raw Material: If we have limited raw material resources, why should we restrict our choices only to USA? There are many other countries (UK, France, Russia) which can provide Enriched Uranium to India. We also are well aware how bad “Monopoly” is for the consumer’s interests. So, I hope that this needs no mention.
* Lack of technology: Though we have functional atomic energy plants in India, but one of Government’s worry could be our lack of technology (not at par with what USA could provide). But why should not we focus on technology development rather than handing over control to USA? The way how our Missile Man (great Kalam) was sent packing from President office (he really deserved an extension), has made it very clear that current government does not care a bit about “Technology Development”. I think that the Congress Regime is all set to make easy money (with the indirect training expenses which USA companies must be spending on educating the current Government about need to N-energy). But if we have to progress as a country, we need to have in-house technology development (That is how China has emerged as a great world power recently).
* International Pressure: USA may try to put (unreasonable trade) sanctions on India, if we pursue N-research (or dilly dally too much on N-pact). But in today’s open economy it should not be very easy for USA to isolate India. We are emerging as a great market, and throwing out India of the open-trade will be a big blow to USA economy itself.
The (Left’s) Right Way
Though Indian Government has all the rights to go ahead with the N-pacts, the way they feel is right. But, however being a democracy they atleast should have an open debate on this issue before taking any further steps (any further negotiations with IAEA). Also, the details of N-deal should be kept transparent (make it public). In case we feel that our current technology can not help us sail through the (current energy crisis), we should have clause in the N-pact to move out of its obligations at any later time (when we have attained the technology ourselves).
USA’s Interests
USA economy is weakening. They need some way to fill up their treasury. Selling N-energy to developing countries can possibly a big avenue of making money for them. Let us discuss how USA has erred in recent years on economic front.
* During Cold war, the two super powers (USA and Russia) made most of their money through exports of defense products and defense technologies. After the end of cold war, the world-wide defense expenditures have declined heavily. This meant that USA had to find alternate trades for making money. Since technology was their biggest strength, USA government decided to use their technology for commercial use. We have seen a dramatic growth in technology in last few decades. But most of this technology which we see today, existed in 70s and 80s (ofcourse there have been great development on VLSI front). But, it was restricted for the defense use. Recent IT growth in south-east Asia has delivered a big blow to USA IT companies (who are now cursing the ghost of outsourcing - after all this word “outsourcing was invented by them). And investors are moving out of USA and trading their money elsewhere. This is cause of major worry for USA government.
* In last few years, USA government has made a big effort to take hold of Petroleum business. This could have helped them to fill their treasuries. The invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq (on name of world peace, terrorism and War of Freedom) had more to do with Petroleum than World Peace. USA wanted to lay down some oil-pipelines through Afghanistan (which would have helped some USA companies which have stake in Petroleum business) to connect Middleeast with Asia (for direct oil supply). Also, USA hoped to take a major stake in oil wells with a dummy Government in Iraq. With a puppet government (which could form policies as per USA directives), USA companies could have entered in petroleum market on full fledge. But both these gambles seem to have played against USA. They have lost more money than what they can possibly recover in next decade.
Congress’ Interests
Though Manmohan Singh mentions that he is committed to make sure that India’s energy needs for next decades are met, I suspect (and every one of us has reasons suspect) if his intentions are fair. If there is nothing dirty in the N-pact, why the terms and conditions of the deal have been kept so secret so far? After all it is not a defense deal (it has even been named a Civil-Nuclear deal), which could be of strategic importance (not to make it public). The funniest thing is that Congress have not even bothered to take their allies (in ruling government) in to confidence. Until last week, Mr Singh was confidently ignoring the Left’s Objections (to N-Deal). Now also they do not seem much bothered about Left’s concerns. They are trying to gain time by promising a parliamentary debate (and if needed a review committee). The times of debate (and details of revue committee) have not been finalized and Government has made its intentions very clear that it will not put any talks with IAEA on hold. Which means that they some how wants to sign the deal. What is making Mr Manmohan so much motivated to resolve India’s Energy concerns (Even with ascertaining if the path he is taking is wrong or right). I can smell billions of dollar in Swiss bank accounts.
Left’s Stand
I am not sure if Left’s stand has any ideological angle or they are just trying to show their importance. The addiction of “being felt important” is really bad. It is true that Left has never enjoyed such a powerful position before (in India). So may be they are just showing off their muscles. Pulling out of the government is a gamble for Left. The next government may not need their support or they may emerge even mightier (so its a gamble). Next few days will prove if their stand has any thing to do with Ideology or if it is just a teenage kid acting strange with his physiological changes.
….
4th September, 2007
I am posting this follow up because I personally believe that there may be a lot of truth in the Left’s Fresh Propaganda. In their statements, left does not sound against nuclear technology or against USA (even if they are), but their demand is to stuck profitable (profitable to country - not to few individuals) deal. Manmohan Singh is stuck to his rote of “Enough power for entire country”. If power is going to cost double, will most citizens be able to afford it?
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